|
|
About Us
Research
Publication
Member
Webmail
|
::Publication
|
Publication
- 최우석, 허창회, 강기룡, 윤원태, 2014, 북서태평양 태풍의 여름과 가을철 예측시스템 개발과 한반도 영향 태풍 예측에 활용, 대기, 24(4),565-571
[abstract]
|
A long-range prediction system of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) has been operated in the National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration since 2012. The model forecasts the spatial distribution of TC tracks averaged over the period JuneOctober. In this study, we separately developed TC prediction models for summer (JuneAugust) and autumn (SeptemberNovember) period based on the current operating system. To perform the three-month WNP TC activity prediction procedure readily, we modified the shell script calling in environmental variables automatically. The user can apply the model by changing these environmental variables of namelist parameter in consideration of their objective. The validations for the two seasons demonstrate the great performance of predictions showing high pattern correlations between hindcast and observed TC activity. In addition, we developed a post-processing script for deducing TC activity in the Korea emergency zone from final forecasting map and its skill is discussed. |
|
- 진천실, 허창회, 박두선, 최우석, 김다솔, 이종호, 장기호, 강기룡, 2014, 북서태평양 태풍 진로의 계절예측시스템 자동화 구축 및 조기 예측성의 검증, 대기, 24(1), 1-8
[abstract]
|
The automated prediction system for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity is
established at the National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration
(KMA) to provide effective operation and control of the system for user who lacks knowledge
of the system. For automation of the system, two procedures which include subjective decisions
by user are performed in advance, and their output data are provided as input data. To
provide the capability to understand the operational processes for operational user, the input
and output data are summarized with each process, and the directory structure is reconstructed
following KMA’s standard. We introduce a user interface using namelist input parameters to
effectively control operational conditions which is fixed or should be manually set in the previous
version of the prediction system. To operationally use early prediction which become available
through the automation, its performances are evaluated according to initial condition
dates. As a result, high correlations between the observed and predicted TC counts are kept for
all track clusters even though advancing the initial condition date from May to January. |
|
- 허창회, 이민희, 박태원, 이승민, 2011, 한반도 지역 관측 기후변화 고찰, 한국기후변화학회지, 2(4), 221-235
|
|
- 허창회, 김형석, 2011, 군집별 태풍 개수 예측 방법 및 여름철 태풍 진로 예측 방법, 대한민국특허, 출원번호 10-2010-0097571
(2010.10.07), 등록번호 10-1026071(2011.3.24)
|
|
- 허창회, 이민희, 송창근, 2010, 특이기상 변화 추정 방법, 대한민국 특허, 출원번호 10-2010-0040055 (2010.04.29)
|
|
- 최우석, 허창회, 김형석, 2010, 대규모 순환장이 북서태평양 태풍활동에 끼치는 영향: 2009년의 예, Climate Change Research, 1(2), 133-145.
|
|
- 허창회, 김형석, 2009, 동중국해를 지나는 태풍 개수의 확률 계절 예측 방법, 대한민국 특허, 출원번호 10-2009-0064972 (2009.07.16), 등록번호 100928238 (2009.11.17)
|
|
- 허창회, 김형석, 2008, 동중국해 통과 태풍의 여름 계절 예보방법, 대한민국특허, 출원번호 10-2008- 0015812 (2008.02.21) 등록번호 100865077 (2008.10.17)
|
|
- 박두선, 허창회, 황종국, 2008, 경상북도에서 태풍에 의한 영향과 유형별 진로 특성 분석, 대기, 18 (4), 525-532
|
|
- 유정문,정명재,이규태,김준,허창회,안명환,허영민,이주은,유혜림,정주용,신인철,최용상,김영미,이윤곤,이재화,윤종민,이원학, 2007, 레일리 대기에서 단파 영역에서의 복사전달모델 결과들의 상호 비교, 한국지구과학회지, 제28권 3호
|
|
- 허창회, 2006, 서울에서 1954-2005년 동안 관측된 설날 귀성에 따른 일교차의 변화, 대기, Vol.16 No.1
|
|
- 박명숙,허창회,김영미,김응현,김규선, 2006, 다목적실용위성 3호의 지상관측확률에 관한 연구, 대기, Vol.10 No.4
|
|
- 최용상, 허창회, 안명환, 김영미, 2006, 3.7마이크로 채널을 이용한 구름 광학 두께 및 유효 입자반경의 추정 방법, 출원일 2006-05-26 (출원번호 10-2006-0047421), 등록일 2007-11-05 (등록번호 0775654)
|
|
- 최용상, 허창회, 안명환, 김영미, 2006, 6.7 및 10.8 마이크로 채널을 이용한 운정 온도 및 압력 추정 방법, 출원일 2006-05-26 (출원번호 10-2006-0047422), 등록일 2006-09-19 (등록번호 0761936)
|
|
- 최용상, 허창회, 안명환, 김영미, 2006, 6.7 마이크로 채널을 이용한 구름상 추정 방법, 출원일 2006-05-25 (출원번호 10-2006-0046994), 등록일 2007-07-10 (등록번호 0740347)
|
|
- Oh, H.-R., Y.-S. Choi, C.-H. Ho and M.-H. Ahn, 2006, Development of Sky Cover Retrieval Algorithm for the Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Imagery, Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, Vol. 42, No. 6
|
|
- 이윤경, 문병권, 권민호, 전종갑, 2006, ENSO 십년변동에 미치는 북서태평양 지역에서의 바람응력 변동의 역할, 한국지구과학회지, Vol.27, No.6, p.687-697,
[abstract]
|
This paper investigated the effects of the wind stress forcing in the western North Pacific on ENSO decadal change before and after the late 1970s. The SVD analysis of SODA data shows that the positive wind stress curl was dominant in the western North Pacific at the ENSO mature phase, which leads to the ENSO phase change by discharge/recharge heat contents in the equatorial Pacific. Before the late 1970s, the wind stress curl in the western North Pacific was strong. This strong wind forcing that is associated with the fast discharge of heat contents in the equator leads to the short period and the weak intensity of ENSO occurred during the 1960-1970. On the other hand, after the late 1970s the relatively weak wind stress curl was accompanied with the long period and the strong intensity of ENSO. The simple coupled model experiments also confirm that the amplitude and dominant period of ENSO decrease when the wind stress curl in the western North Pacific projects more strongly into the ocean at the ENSO mature phase. Our results support that the changes in the behavior of ENSO after the late 1970s are associated with the wind stress variation in the western North Pacific. |
|
- 김맹기, 강인식, 허창회, 2000, CO2 점증 실험의 광역규모 예측인자를 이용한 한반도 겨울철 강수 시나리오, 한국기상학회지, 36, 65-74
|
|
- Yoo,Jung-Moon, Eun-Jeong Park, Kyu-Myong Kim, and Chang-Hoi Ho
, 1999, Comparisons of Satellite Data with Model Reanalyses on the Midtropospheric Thermal State
, Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, 35(4), 549-564
|
|
- Chang-Hoi Ho, Kyu-Myong Kim, Dae-Soo Han and Myoung-Hwan Ahn, 1998, A Stratosphere-Troposphere Temperature Seesaw and Its Connection with Total Ozone over Korea , Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, Vol. 34, pp.122-127
|
|
- Chang-Hoi Ho and In-Sik Kang , 1998, Changes in the Earth-Atmosphere Heat Budgets Due to A doubling CO2
, Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society , Vo. 34, No. 4, pp. 670-676
|
|
- Jung-Moon Yoo, Jung-Ok Jung, Kyu-Myong Kim and Chang-Hoi Ho, 1998, Empirical Orthogonal Analysis of Microwave Brightness Temperature at 53.74GHz over the Oceans and Sea Surface Temperature, Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, Vo. 34, No. 2, pp. 238-257
|
|
- Chang-Hoi Ho and In-Sik Kang, 1996, A Parameterization of the Terrestrial Radiation Suitable for a Climate Model : Absorption Bands of Water Vapor
, Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society , Vol. 32, pp. 29-39
|
|
- In-Sik Kang, Chang-Hoi Ho and Kyung-Duck Min, 1992, Long-range Forecast of Summer Precipitation in Korea, Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, Vol. 28, pp.283-292
|
|
- Chang-Hoi Ho and In-Sik Kang, 1988, The Variability of Precipitation in Korea, Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 38-48
|
|
- In-Sik Kang, Chang-Hoi Ho and Sung Sam Kim, 1987, Interannual and Intraseasonal Variations of Summer Precipitation Simulated by a GCM and the Influence of Tropical Pacific SST on the Interannual Variability , Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 12-24
|
|
- , 1986, , ,
|
|
|
|
|
|
Email 주소 무단수집 금지, Copyright(C) 2006 CPL, All Rights Reserved
|
|